Will Stocks Crash In 2026?

Based on Bloomberg's data, U.S. stocks have reached their highest valuation in over 100 years.

Even higher than the levels seen before the 1929 crash and the Dot-Com Bubble.

Does that mean we’re crashing in 2026?

Not necessarily.

History shows expensive markets can become even more expensive.

And the AI rally has been supported by significantly stronger earnings growth from major technology companies compared to many Dot-Com winners.

As legendary investor Peter Bernstein said:

“Bull markets can go well beyond rational valuation levels as long as the outlook for future earnings is positive.”

And high valuations alone rarely end bull markets.

But when expectations become this high, the margin for error becomes much smaller.

Tesla’s valuation makes no sense.

Compared to other Magnificent 7 companies, Tesla makes far less revenue but trades at a much higher valuation.

So the trillion-dollar question:

Is Tesla overpriced?

Tesla bulls believe the company is no longer just an EV maker.

They are betting on:

The problem? Most of these businesses still need to prove they can generate scalable profits.

Can Nvidia earn $1.7 trillion in net profit?

Let’s find out.

For Nvidia to generate $1.7 trillion in net profit from 2026–2030, the company would need extraordinary execution.

Here’s the math:

Nvidia currently has a net margin of roughly 63%.

$1.7T profit ÷ 63% margin = $2.7T required revenue.

That means Nvidia’s revenue would need to look like this:

That implies roughly 26% annual revenue growth for five years.

The challenge?

Nvidia would need to more than triple revenue while maintaining some of the highest margins ever seen from a mega-cap company.

Possible if AI infrastructure demand keeps exploding.

But far from easy.

If we were entering an AI bubble, what would it look like?

Probably something like this:

A 5-year-old AI company valued higher than one of the largest retailers ever built.

Anthropic recently raised capital at a reported valuation near $965 billion.

For comparison:

Walmart spent more than 50 years building a global empire with:

• 10,000+ stores
• millions of employees
• one of the strongest supply chains on Earth

Yet its valuation sits in a similar range.

On May 8th, President Trump said investors should “go out and buy Dell.”

Less than three weeks later…

Dell secured a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract and the stock exploded higher.

Dell shares jumped 80% after Trump’s comments, adding billions in market value.

But there’s a bigger story here.

Dell is becoming a major player in the AI infrastructure boom.

The Pentagon contract and stronger earnings added fuel to a trend that was already building.

Political comments can create attention.

But over the long run, earnings, cash flows, and business fundamentals decide whether those gains last.

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