Will Stocks Crash In 2026?

The S&P 500 is statistically expensive on 16 of 20 metrics.

And it gets worse:

• 11 metrics are 30%+ above average
• 8 metrics are 50%+ above
• 5 metrics are 75%+ above

This isn’t isolated. It’s stacked overvaluation.

Across those 16 metrics, the median overvaluation is ~70%.

You can see the clustering:

• Trailing P/E → +71%
• P/OCF → +70%
• EV/EBITDA → +69%
• EV/Sales → +77%

The market is trading at roughly 1.7× its normal valuation.

Short-term vs long-term valuation metrics are not aligned.

Short-Term Metrics (“Everything is fine”)

• Forward P/E → +35%
• Median Forward P/E → +22%
• Forward PEG → ~fair value

Long-Term Metrics (“This is expensive”)

• Shiller P/E → +121%
• Market Cap/GDP → +168%
• Price-to-Book → +96%

This means current prices are being justified by strong future growth assumptions.

If that growth materializes…

Valuations may hold.

But if it doesn’t?

There’s very little margin for error.

April 1st marks 50 years of Apple.

An investor who put $1,000 into Apple’s IPO in 1980 would have about $2,530,455 today.

That’s a 2,530x return.

Here are 4 insane facts about Apple.

Apple has repurchased over $750 billion of its own stock in the last decade (MacroTrends).

The iPhone generated roughly $210 billion in revenue in 2025. It remains the best-selling product in the world (Forbes).

Apple’s third co-founder Ronald Wayne sold his 10% stake for $800 in 1976. That stake would be worth around $366 billion (Fortune).

Apple now has over 2.5 billion active devices globally. That’s roughly one-third of the world’s population (Apple Insider).

Share buybacks are widely misunderstood (Harvard Business Review).

Most investors think stock buybacks are simple:

“Companies return cash to shareholders.”

But reality is very different.

A growing share of buybacks are not rewards…

They’re damage control.

Here’s what actually happens:

Companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet openly admited buybacks help offset dilution from employee stock compensation.

Next time you see a company announcing buybacks, ask:

• Is this returning capital?
• Or just offsetting dilution?

Because those are very different stories.

CapEx at Microsoft is up a massive +693% since Q1 2020.

Mega-cap tech companies have ramped up capital spending at an unprecedented pace.

When ChatGPT launched in November 2022 everything accelerated.

Since then:

• Microsoft & Alphabet CapEx → ~4× increase
• Amazon & Meta CapEx → ~3× increase

Hyperscalers are deploying capital at a pace we’ve never seen before.

And this level of spending has two possible outcomes:

Either way…we’re witnessing one of the largest capital allocation shifts in tech history.

Long term investing is at risk according to venture capitalist Chamath (X).

Modern investing is based on one belief.

Future cash flows matter more than today’s profits.

But AI might break that.

What if no company can reliably predict earnings beyond 5 years?

Not because they’re bad…but because disruption is too fast.

You build with AI → someone replaces you with better AI → repeat

Suddenly: Year 7 cash flows = unknowable

Valuations collapse into the present.

Instead of pricing 20+ years of growth, the markets price what you earn right now.

If disruption risk rises:

• Stable companies → ~10–12x FCF
• Moderate disruption → ~5x FCF
• High disruption → ~2–4x FCF

That’s a 60–80% valuation compression.

Markets have done this before:

• Newspapers → wiped by digital
• Retail → crushed by e-commerce
• Energy → discounted on future demand
• Taxi medallions → destroyed by Uber

If this goes global:

• Growth investing breaks
• Venture capital collapses
• Long-term investing becomes impossible

Capital flows into:

• infrastructure
• commodities
• real assets
• short-term bonds

Basically: Things AI can’t disrupt overnight

🚀 IPO Track – OpenAI is preparing for a potential IPO by the end of the year.

🤖 Robo Alliance – Uber plans to invest $1.25 billion in Rivian as part of a new robotaxi partnership.

🏦 Rate Hold – The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged while monitoring risks from the Iran conflict.

💰 Debt Surge – U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion.

📊 Crypto Framework – The U.S. securities regulator has issued long-awaited guidance on cryptocurrency rules.

🤝 Celebrity Finance – JPMorgan is partnering with Dwyane Wade and Tom Brady to expand its wealth management services for athletes.

🏠 Insurance Strain – Rising insurance costs are pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to change mortgage rules.