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Good morning, investors. Bitcoin is down 38% since last June. For MicroStrategy ($MSTR), the Bitcoin bet now comes with a $10.8 billion unrealized loss. At the same time, some AI stocks are up over +1,000%.
This makes investing in crypto the most costly trade of the last 12 months. Let’s take a look.
Trade Of The Year
Michael Saylor has a $10.8 billion problem.
MicroStrategy ($MSTR), one of Bitcoin’s largest supporters, is now sitting on a $10.8 billion paper loss.
In other words, after 6 years of buying Bitcoin, the company is down -17% on its position.
Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy was simple:
Raise capital → Buy Bitcoin → Let Bitcoin’s price growth drive shareholder value.
And for years, it worked.
But now that Bitcoin is down 38% over the last year, the strategy is facing its biggest test yet.
$MSTR stock has fallen 77% from its all-time high.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 116% over the same period.
And some AI stocks like Micron ($MU) are up over 1,000%.
Sound familiar?
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Big Tech Valuations
Evercore ISI sees Meta reaching $930 per share.
That implies nearly 50% upside from current levels.
Not because it’s the fastest-growing company in history.
But because investors are paying less for that growth.
Compared to other AI giants:
Meta: 18x forward P/E, 20.7% expected growth
Microsoft: 23x P/E, 17.2% growth
Google: 28x P/E, 19.1% growth
Amazon: 29x P/E, 13.9% growth
This gives Meta the lowest growth-adjusted valuation of the group.
Its forward PEG ratio sits around 0.87, compared to Amazon above 2.
The question is whether Meta’s massive AI spending will turn into stronger growth and efficiency.
SpaceX IPO
The SpaceX IPO is a bet on the future. Here is why.
1. SpaceX requires 6.7x more belief per dollar of revenue
Apple IPO: 15x revenue multiple
SpaceX target: 95x revenue multiple
Investors are paying significantly more for each $1 of existing sales.
The market has shifted from rewarding proven performance → pricing future potential upfront.
2. SpaceX’s current business represents a tiny part of its valuation
Revenue compared to valuation:
Apple IPO: $118M revenue / $1.8B valuation = 6.6%
SpaceX: $18.7B revenue / $1.75T valuation = 1.1%
Meaning most of SpaceX’s valuation depends on future growth.
We expect a lot of volatility around this stock.
$1 Trillion ETF
Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF ($VOO) just became the first ETF ever to pass $1 trillion in assets under management.
The growth has been incredible:
2024 inflows: +$118B
2025 inflows: +$138B
2026 inflows so far: +$69B
Since the 2022 bear market, VOO’s assets have more than tripled.
But this is part of a much bigger trend.
Global ETF assets have exploded from $6.4T in 2020 → $21.9T in 2026.
Investors are increasingly choosing low-cost, diversified index funds over traditional stock picking.
The interesting side effect?
More money flows automatically into the biggest companies in the index.
The Buffett Era Is Over
Berkshire & Cathie Wood recently bought Google at almost the exact same time.
But here is where it gets interesting.
Cathie spotted the opportunity first.
She started accumulating Google in Q3 2024, while Berkshire entered in Q3 2025.
Average buy price:
Cathie Wood: $269/share
Berkshire: $283/share
But Berkshire made a much bigger bet (76x larger).
Berkshire position: $20.2B
ARK position: $266M
Google is now Berkshire’s 5th largest holding.
Don’t Keep Us A Secret
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