The Best Market Bottom Indicator

Superinvestor Bill Ackman predicted 5/5 recent market bottoms.

Over the past few years, several of his most pessimistic public comments appeared almost exactly when the market was about to rebound.

Each time Ackman publicly warned about major risks (COVID panic, inflation fears, Treasury volatility, or tariffs) the market was very close to a bottom.

That’s why some investors jokingly compare it to the famous Jim Cramer indicator.

But Ackman’s signal works slightly differently.

Instead of individual stocks, it tends to coincide with broader market turning points.

His latest tweet, arguing that “some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices” and urging investors to ignore bearish headlines, came just before another market bounce.

That said, one important detail remains:

While geopolitical fears have eased and equities stabilized, markets are still trading above long-term valuation averages.

Anthropic just closed the revenue gap.

And this is just before the October 2026 IPO.

According to recent reports, Anthropic’s annualized revenue has surpassed $30 billion, while OpenAI is generating roughly $2 billion per month (or about $24 billion annually).

In early 2025, OpenAI was estimated at $6B revenue vs. Anthropic’s $1B.

What changed? Enterprise AI.

Anthropic’s Claude coding agents have exploded in popularity with developers.

These workloads generate massive token usage, which directly translates into higher revenue.

And that highlights the real monetization engine of AI:

• Casual chatbot users generate limited revenue
• Developers and enterprise workloads generate heavy token consumption

In other words, a few power users can be worth more than millions of casual ones.

Microsoft is experiencing its third-largest drawdown in two decades.

The reason isn’t weak revenue or collapsing demand.

Instead, investors are questioning three things: AI spending, monetization, and concentration risk.

AI spending is exploding - Microsoft spent $37.5B in a single quarter on capex and leases. While Azure grew 38% YoY, the growth rate didn’t accelerate despite massive investment.

Monetization is still early - Microsoft reported 15 million Copilot subscribers, which is only about 3% of its 450 million commercial users.

Concentration risk is rising - A massive $250B relationship with OpenAI represents roughly 40% of Microsoft’s backlog.

If these risks are structural, valuation pressure makes sense.

If they’re temporary, the recent weakness may look very different in hindsight.

Either way, Microsoft has moved onto our watchlist this week.

Nvidia returned 21,000% since 2016.

That said, Michael Burry is still betting against Nvidia.

He recently revealed he added to his Nvidia puts, purchasing January 2027 $115 strike puts at $3.30, while still holding earlier $100 strike puts.

The position size is small, roughly ~3% notional exposure

This means it’s more of a macro hedge than an all-in bet.

But his reasoning is straightforward:

• The AI trade has pushed valuations extremely high
• Implied volatility is elevated
• Long-dated puts cap downside risk while leaving room for timing

Burry even noted he considered shorting Nvidia outright, but preferred options because maximum loss is limited and theta decay won’t accelerate until closer to expiration.

Markets have changed…

In the past, analysts could spend weeks manually researching companies and still gain an edge.

Today, information is distributed globally in seconds.

That means the real advantage often comes from better tools and faster insights.

So here’s a practical list of tools many investors rely on.

Remember, the goal isn’t to use every tool.

It’s to build a small stack that gives you an informational edge.

Note: We receive no commissions from any of these tools.

📊 Earnings Test – The upcoming U.S. earnings season will test markets already shaken by geopolitical tensions.

⚙️ Spending Pause – Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warned that the tech industry may be overbuilding AI infrastructure, hinting Microsoft could slow its spending.

⛽ Inflation Spike – U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% in March as energy costs climbed following the Iran conflict.

📺 Subscription Reset – YouTube increased its U.S. subscription prices for the first time in three years.

⚓ Strait Blockade – Donald Trump said the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran failed.

⚡ Power Bottleneck – Nearly half of planned U.S. data center projects have been delayed or canceled due to power shortages and limited access to Chinese components.

🛰️ Space Listing – Geospatial analytics company HawkEye 360 filed for a NYSE IPO as investor interest grows in defense technology.