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Good morning, investors. SpaceX is chasing a $1.75 trillion valuation, so we went deep into the S-1 filing to see if the numbers support the hype.
After 10 hours of analysis, we are not convinced. Let’s dive in.
SpaceX Is Not A Buy
Can SpaceX really be worth $1.75 trillion?
That would make it 76x larger than Google at IPO and instantly one of the 10 biggest companies on earth.
So we analyzed SpaceX’s financials, ran a reverse DCF, and we’re not convinced.
To justify a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would need to:
Grow revenue at roughly 39% annually for 10 years
Reach about 45% operating margins
That’s where things get difficult.
Historically, no company generating $15B+ in annual revenue has sustained a ~40% CAGR for an entire decade.
And the implied profitability is even more extreme.
A 45% operating margin at SpaceX’s scale would be almost unprecedented for a capital-intensive business involving rockets, satellites, launch infrastructure, and manufacturing.
So what would need to happen?
The bull case assumes:
Starlink becomes global communications infrastructure
Starship succeeds commercially
AI/data-center ambitions scale massively
SpaceX becomes the backbone of defense, telecom, and space logistics
In other words:
The numbers only work if SpaceX dominates multiple global industries simultaneously.
And even then, you're looking at a 10% return annually.
That means buyers are taking massive execution risk for returns that may only slightly outperform the S&P 500.
Where to Invest $100,000 Right Now, According to Experts
Investors face a dilemma. When the S&P 500 finished its worst quarter since 2022 last month, diversifiers like bonds and bitcoin fell too.
Even with the turnaround in mid-April, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Vanguard have projected low-single-digit annualized returns from 2024-2034.
Bloomberg asked where experts would personally invest $100,000 for their March monthly edition.
One answer that surfaced for a second time? Art.
It's what billionaires like Bezos and the Rockefellers have privately used to diversify for decades.
Why?
Appreciation. The ArtPrice100 Index outpaced the S&P 500 overall from 2000 to 2025
Low-correlation. The postwar contemporary segment has moved independently of traditional investments like stocks since ‘95.*
Resilience. A scarce, physical, and global asset class with decades of demonstrated demand.
Thanks to the world's premier art investing platform, now anyone can invest in works featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso, without needing millions.
Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but...
*According to Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
9th Biggest Company
If SpaceX reaches a $1.75 trillion valuation, it would become the 9th biggest company in the world.
But the revenue comparison is where things get truly absurd.
Amazon → $742.8B
Apple → $451.4B
Saudi Aramco → $448.6B
Alphabet → $422.5B
Microsoft → $318.3B
NVIDIA → $215.9B
Meta Platforms → $214.9B
TSMC → $121.9B
Tesla → $97.9B
Broadcom → $68.3B
SpaceX → $19B
That can only mean one thing:
SpaceX is being priced almost entirely for the future, not the present.
SpaceX Segments
Most investors look at SpaceX as a rocket company…
But under one roof sit three businesses with completely different economics, margins, and growth profiles.
Space (Launch Services)
Falcon launches and orbital transport.
$657M operating loss on 170 launches
Reusability created a massive cost advantage and made SpaceX the dominant launch provider globally.
Connectivity (Starlink)
Global satellite internet infrastructure.
$4.4B operating profit with 8.9M subscribers
High-margin recurring revenue at global scale. This is the core of the trillion-dollar bull case.
AI (xAI)
AI infrastructure and compute expansion (Grok).
$6.4B operating loss
Huge upside potential, but currently consuming much of the profitability generated elsewhere.
In 2025, 61% of all capital expenditures went towards xAI.
As of now, xAI’s acqusition is not justified.
Revenue Trend
The real story inside SpaceX’s numbers is simple:
Space is stangnant.
Starlink is growing.
xAI is burning cash.
Space’s growth trajectory (2023-2025):
Launches: 98 → 138 → 170
Operating income: $0.0B → $0.0B → -$0.7B
Starlink’s growth trajectory (2023-2025):
Subsribers: 2.3M → 4.4M → 8.9M
Operating income: $0.5B → $2.0B → $4.4B
This is the actual engine behind SpaceX’s valuation.
xAI’s growth trajectory (2023-2025):
Operating income: -$4.0B → -$1.6B → -$6.4B
SpaceX Vs. Meta
SpaceX is reportedly worth more than Meta…
That’s despite:
11x lower revenue
negative earnings
extreme capital intensity
The gap between narrative and fundamentals is enormous.
Meta is valued around $1.5T (7.2x P/S)
SpaceX is set near $1.75T (94x P/S)
There are safer alternatives than paying perfection-level prices for future dreams.
Don’t Keep Us A Secret
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