The Most Important Chart of the Decade

For just the third time in 70 years, U.S. households now hold more wealth in stocks than in real estate.

The last two times this happened, markets didn’t “cool off.”

They collapsed — by nearly 50% — and stayed down for years. Today’s imbalance is even bigger.

This data comes directly from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Financial Accounts, cross-verified by Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Securities.

As of mid-2025:

That imbalance has only appeared in the late 1960s and late 1990s — both followed by brutal, multi-year bear markets.

What makes today different is scale.

For the first time in a generation, American households are more exposed to financial markets than to the physical assets they live in.

That inversion has always marked the late stage of a cycle — when confidence replaces caution, and leverage replaces margin of safety.

The Shiller CAPE near 40, extreme S&P 500 concentration, and over 50% of assets in passive funds mean risk is being ignored.

Meanwhile, real estate — traditionally the stabilizer — is cracking under refinancing pressure.

Markets don’t crash because people are cautious.

They crash when confidence is one-sided.

This chart suggests we’re there again.

Stock-based compensation is quietly draining shareholder value.

These software companies are paying 20–65% of revenue in stock to employees.

That sounds harmless — until you look at performance.

Only 7 of these stocks beat the S&P 500 year-to-date.

The rest?
Diluted.

Here’s why it matters:

Investors often focus on growth stories and ignore dilution. But markets don’t.

When employees get paid before shareholders, shareholders lose.

Nike delivered a mixed message this quarter.

Yes, Nike beat expectations:

But investors focused on what’s deteriorating, not what beat.

The problems:

North America is stabilizing and Europe is improving — but China remains the biggest drag, and guidance disappointed.

Nike now expects Q3 revenue to decline, while margins stay under pressure.

CEO Elliott Hill is right about one thing:

This turnaround won’t be linear.

Space is no longer a government science project. It’s becoming core economic infrastructure.

According to McKinsey & Company, the space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.

That growth won’t come from rockets alone — it will come from data, connectivity, defense, and AI-enabled services powered by space-based systems.

Launch costs have collapsed. Satellites are cheaper, smaller, and deployed in massive constellations.

Data from orbit now fuels AI models, defense systems, global internet, climate monitoring, logistics, and financial markets.

Every major Vanguard stock ETF, organized by how investors actually build portfolios.

Core & Broad Market ETFs are your foundation — funds like total market and S&P 500 exposure that do the heavy lifting over decades.

U.S. Size & Style ETFs let investors tilt intentionally:

Income, ESG & Factor ETFs are for strategy:

International & Real Assets round it out:

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