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Good morning, investors. Today we’re covering, Big Tech’s Q4 earnings, a 100+ year history of gold, Nancy Pelosi’s updated portfolio, and much more.
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This Week’s Top Stories
NEED TO KNOW
The Big Four
Big Tech’s earnings sent a clear message: something’s off.
This kind of pattern has only shown up once in the last 30 years. And it didn’t end well.
Here’s what’s going on.
Apple beat on revenue and EPS, yet warned about rising component costs and supply constraints.
Tesla beat estimates, but posted a 61% YoY drop in net income.
Microsoft crushed EPS and then lost $357B in market cap on a 0.4% cloud growth miss.
Meta Platforms beat expectations and added market cap after announcing $115B–$135B in AI capex.
This looks uncomfortably like 1999 before the dot com crash.
Here are three reasons why.
Runaway Tech & AI CapEx
This is the largest investment cycle since the dot-com era.
Meta nearly doubling AI capex
Microsoft capex + leases +66% YoY
Tesla shifting factories toward speculative robotics
Apple R&D up 31% YoY
In 1999, companies overbuilt internet infrastructure.
In 2026, they’re overbuilding AI and data centers.
Dangerous Concentration Risk
Big companies are tilting towards more risk (not less).
Microsoft: 45% of RPO (remaining performance obligations) tied to OpenAI
Meta: AI strategy + spend concentrated on one theme
Tesla: capital funneled into robotaxis with no commercial scale
Apple: exposed to advanced chip supply constraints
One technology. One fragile link.
Peak-Valuation Fragility
At market tops, tiny disappointments cause massive damage.
Microsoft: −10% on a fractional miss
Tesla: valuation compressing as profitability fades
Meta: euphoric reaction to extreme spending
Apple: margin warnings despite strong results
That’s perfection pricing cracking.
Remember, this doesn’t mean a crash is imminent.
But historically, when earnings beats stop lifting stocks, the cycle is late — not early.
Earnings Snapshot
Apple (CNBC)
Revenue: $143.76B vs. $138.48B expected
EPS: $2.84 vs. $2.67 expected
Tesla (CNBC)
Revenue: $24.90B vs. $24.79B expected
EPS: $0.50 vs. $0.45 expected
Microsoft (YahooFinance)
Revenue: $81.27B vs. $80.3B expected
EPS: $5.16 vs. $3.92 expected
Meta (YahooFinance)
Revenue: $59.9B vs. $58.4B expected
EPS: $8.88 vs. $8.16 expected
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CHART OF THE WEEK
History Of Gold
After taking 5,600+ years to first reach $1,000/oz in 2008, gold just climbed another $1,000 in roughly 28 days.
That kind of move doesn’t happen in calm markets.
Here is what’s happening.
A Compressed History of Gold’s Big Jumps
1933–34: The U.S. devalued the dollar and re-pegged gold higher.
1971: Bretton Woods ended, gold was freed, and prices exploded.
1979–80: Inflation + geopolitical shocks sent gold parabolic.
2008–11: Financial crisis and QE drove gold to a new peak.
That’s the entire playbook: currency shifts, inflation shocks, and crisis-driven demand.
The Surge In 2026 Is Different
It’s not just bigger, but deeper in meaning.
It’s being driven by:
Persistent macro uncertainty
Record central bank accumulation
Sticky global inflation expectations
A fractured geopolitical order
Growing demand for neutral, non-political reserve assets
Gold isn’t trading like a hedge anymore.
It’s trading like an emerging parallel monetary system—a safe settlement layer that doesn’t rely on trust in governments, alliances, or fiat stability.
What This Means For You
When real rates fall or faith in policymaking weakens, gold historically becomes a capital magnet.
Gold’s parabolic phases often overshoot, then correct violently.
Which means risk management is non-negotiable here.
Remember, a fast spike doesn’t mean collapse is imminent…
But it does mean investors are positioning for a world where policymakers have lost the benefit of the doubt.
World’s Best Congress Trader
Since May 2014, Nancy Pelosi’s disclosed portfolio is up ~836%.
That’s more than the S&P 500 (~269%) and even ahead of Warren Buffett (~271%) over the same period.
Her activity means three things.
1) Core Tech Conviction (Long-Term Exposure)
Pelosi consistently maintains exposure to mega-cap tech leaders, often rolling equity into long-dated call options instead of walking away entirely.
Google (GOOGL): Exercised calls (5,000 shares), added 2027 $150 calls
Amazon (AMZN): Exercised calls (5,000 shares), added 2027 $150 calls
Apple (AAPL): Trimmed shares, added 2027 $100 calls
Nvidia (NVDA): Exercised calls (5,000 shares), added 2027 $100 calls
Pattern: Reduce outright share risk, keep upside through leverage.
2) Risk Management & Capital Recycling
Large share sales paired with option exposure suggest volatility control, not bearishness.
Sold: Apple (45k shares), Nvidia (20k), Amazon (20k), Disney (10k), PayPal (5k)
Moved sizable positions to Donor Advised Funds (tax efficiency, not liquidation)
Pattern: Lock in gains, manage taxes, stay exposed.
3) Selective Thematic Bets
Alongside Big Tech, Pelosi adds targeted positions tied to power, AI, and asset managers.
Tempus AI (TEM): Exercised calls (5,000 shares)
Vistra (VST): Exercised calls (5,000 shares)
AllianceBernstein (AB): Bought 25,000 shares
Versant Media (VSNT): Spinoff exposure from Comcast
Pattern: Concentrated bets where policy, infrastructure, or capital flows matter.
Starbucks Is Flat
Starbucks stock has gone nowhere since 2020, while the S&P 500 is up roughly ~100% over the same period.
Here’s what’s going on.
Why Starbucks Is Flat
Traffic collapsed post-COVID and only just turned positive again
Margins were sacrificed to fund a turnaround
Rising coffee prices, tariffs, and restructuring costs crushed earnings
Investors have basically been waiting years for growth to come back — it finally might be happening.
Earnings Snapshot
EPS: 56¢ vs 59¢ expected (miss)
Revenue: $9.92B vs $9.67B expected (beat)
Net income: $293M, down sharply from $781M YoY
Global same-store sales: +4% (beat)
Traffic: +3% → first increase in two years
That small traffic rebound sent the stock up about 5%.
Both loyalty and casual customers are returning, the U.S. and China are growing again, and store upgrades are boosting speed.
Starbucks also plans 600–650 new stores in 2026 after trimming weaker locations.
Guidance for 2026 EPS is below what Wall Street wanted, and margins still need work.
The turnaround is happening — just slower than investors prefer.
Invest Like Buffett
Warren Buffett averaged 20% a year since 1965 and his real strategy is simple.
Say “no” to almost everything.
For everything else, you have the cheatsheet above.
Other Big Things
🛰️ SpaceX🔗 - Elon Musk’s SpaceX acquires AI startup xAI ahead of potential IPO
🛡️ Palantir🔗 - Beats Q4 estimates as AI + defense demand surges
🎢 Disney🔗 - Tops Wall Street expectations on theme parks + streaming strength
🏛️ Trump🔗 - Taps a new Federal Reserve chair
📉 Robinhood🔗 - Here’s why HOOD shares are getting obliterated